COMMENT 2019 started with a bang for the UK. Theresa May’s painstakingly negotiated Brexit deal was crushed with the largest margin of defeat for any UK government in the modern parliamentary era, and her government only narrowly survived a vote of confidence the next day, writes Angelica Donati, chief executive of Donati Immobiliare Group.
So, what happens next? The biggest risk is that the UK will accidentally crash out of the European Union with no deal. Though I absolutely understand the tactical reasons for not wanting to extend Article 50 (there will be more time for more people to cause mischief while the economy and businesses continue to suffer under uncertainty), this cannot in any way be allowed to occur.
Too many people in the UK genuinely believe that the EU will “come crawling” when faced with the real possibility of a hard Brexit, and cave in to demands. This, however, is an illusion that I beg everybody not to be swayed by.
Preparing for a hard Brexit
It’s true that European countries, like the UK, have started preparing for a hard Brexit. Germany and France have gone ahead and signed a new treaty of co-operation at Aachen to consolidate their dominance in the bloc once the UK is gone. To take one example, according to reports Italy will be hit with a €20bn loss on exports in the event of a hard Brexit; and it, together with other member states, is in emergency talks with the European Commission on the subject.
However, the biggest threat to France, Germany, Italy and the other EU members is not their economic loss from a UK exit. It is the real risk that the populist and Eurosceptic movements that have taken sway in many of these countries since the Greek crisis will see any softening in the EU’s position towards the UK as the perfect excuse to ask for their own exit.
In Italy, for example, anti-EU sentiment was very strong in the run up to the last general election. This has now turned on its head, precisely because the UK’s current plight has made it clear that there are no free lunches and one cannot rip apart two plants that have been grafted together without significant damage on both sides – but especially to the smaller of the two.
Resentment towards the UK
It is worth noting, too, that there is a lot of resentment towards the UK for the approach that many have had to the EU and to the negotiations that have taken place. After all, Britain enjoyed the best membership terms of any EU state. In the same way that many Brits have strongly negative opinions on the EU, many Europeans openly say that the UK should not be allowed any concessions and should be allowed to crash out if it continues to be picky. EU officials will have to bear this sentiment in their domestic countries in mind.
Let’s also not forget that Angela Merkel, who has repeatedly made overtures to Theresa May, no longer benefits from the position of strength she had in the past.
I cannot stress enough that a hard Brexit must not be allowed to happen. If the Irish backstop is simply too unpalatable to bear, then parliament must find a way to stomach even closer ties to the EU. No other solution is feasible at present, not even with an extension to Article 50. The days in which the UK was afforded the luxury of time which led MPs and the people to think they could have their cake and eat it too are well behind us now.
Mistake based on misinformation
As a European who grew up in London and has always seen this city as the true capital of the world, my personal wish is to see Brexit reversed altogether as a mistake based on misinformation and wishful thinking. Though I accept that this will most likely never happen, I beg you to consider this.
According to forecasts, by 2035 no European country will be big enough to be in the G7 – but the EU as a whole will be. Bilateralism is a doomed policy for small countries such as those that make up Europe, and the only way to successfully compete on the global playing field against the US and China is to do so together.
